2025 was challenging in the real estate market. Thanks to your support we had a great year and have momentum going into 2026 with some beautiful listings hitting the market in January and we are optimistic for the rest of the year.
It’s always fun to make predictions. Last year I nailed it when I recommended anyone planning on selling to get your home on the market early in the year. That turned out to be good advice as sellers who delayed saw increased competition and a softer market in the summer.
What’s going to happen in 2026? Let’s fire up my crystal ball and make some forecasts/guesses. The best way to do this is I will give you my opinion about the forecasts made by some of the national housing forecasters.
Keep in mind when it comes to the housing market the area we serve is huge and there are so many variables that you shouldn’t make your life plans, at least until we talk. You should also understand I am largely speaking to people who contact me with life events happening such as their daughter is having their first grandchild in Chicago and they want to know if they should move now or if their home will be worth $100,000 next year. Nobody wants to feel like they made a mistake so that’s a reasonable question.
Mortgage Rates
The Federal Reserve cut rates again in December but indicated they may only make one additional cut in 2026. It’s expected President Trump will appoint a new Fed Chairman in 2026 and likely someone who is in favor of additional cuts. Although mortgage rates are influenced by the Fed they are more closely aligned with the 10 Year Treasury Yield.
In Redfin’s 2026 predictions they expect mortgage rates to average 6.3% for the entire year. Fannie Mae expects rates to stay about where they are for most of the year and gradually dropping to 5.9% by the end of 2026. The National Association of Realtors expects rates to average around 6%. Most mortgage companies are quoting rates closer to 6% right now but the average rate currently is about 6.3%.
For our business I am planning on 30 year fixed rate mortgages to be between 6-6.3%, in other words about what they are right now. That’s not the 5% rate we all are hoping for but if we can just get some stability where buyers aren’t seeing rates go up and down as much as they have over the last 4 years that would be good for the market.
Number of Home Sales
The National Association of Realtors predicts the number of homes sold nationally will go up 14%. Redfin predicts a 3% increase. 14% isn’t a realistic number unless it’s the result of prices dropping or mortgage rates getting down to 5%.
One thing I am sure of is based on the number of people attending our seminars and contacting me about selling there will be more people who try to sell. More and more people have life events happening that are causing them to move and after years of feeling like they are locked in with a low interest rate they tell me they are sick of living where they are and are ready to move.
The reason I say try is because in our entire market about 30% of the homes listed in 2025 did not sell. Whether or not the increased listings translate to increased sales will depend on mortgage rates, job growth and how confident people are with their jobs. If we see a decline in prices that could cause buyers who have been on the fence to jump in to the market increasing sales.
Rental Rates
Redfin predicts national rents will rise as demand for apartments rises and supply falls.
That’s not going to happen around here. Austin is still leading the country in number of apartments being built. Eventually all the apartments will be completed and rented and we will see rents going up, but that is a couple years off. For the single family home market my advice is you should do everything you can to get a tenant to renew the lease, otherwise you will likely rent to a new tenant at a lower price.
Home Prices
There isn’t great news when it comes to predictions about Austin area real estate prices in 2026. Redfin included Austin in their housing markets most likely to cool down in 2026. Zillow is predicting 2% lower prices and Realtor.com is predicting prices will go down 5%. I think prices are likely to go down between 2%-5%.
More important than getting a prediction like this exactly right isn’t too important. What’s more important for the people we work with is the direction of the market. We aren’t likely to see tremendous appreciation in 2026 which actually makes it easier for me to give you advice if you do want to move.
How do all these predictions impact your plans? I’d have to know more about your situation to give you tailored advice. Call/text or book a time on my calendar at KopaConsultation.com so we can figure out what makes sense for you.
One thing I am sure of is based on the number of people attending our seminars and contacting me about selling there will be more people who try to sell. The reason I say try is because in our entire market about 30% of the homes listed in 2025 did not sell. Whether or not the increased listings translate to increased sales will depend on mortgage rates, job growth and how confident people are with their jobs. If we see a decline in prices that could cause buyers who have been on the fence to jump in to the market increasing sales.
If you plan to sell your home, now is the best time to attend our Free Home Selling Seminars. If you want to attend a seminar, contact us, and we will notify you when they are scheduled. As always, you can check KopaSeminar.com to see the dates and times of our in-person and online Free Home Selling Seminars. For years, home sellers have told me they benefited from attending our events. Sign up for our Free Home Selling Seminar in Austin or Cedar Park at KopaSeminar.com.
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