Avery Ranch and 78717 Real Estate Market Report

November 2021

 

Let’s review the Avery Ranch and 78717 real estate housing market statistics covering October, 2021. There were 33 homes sold in October, down 21.4% from October, 2020. The average dollars per square foot was up 37.2% to $256.75 per foot. The average price was up 23.8% to $584,423 and the median price was up 28% to $560,000.

The average price for homes on the market is $664,016 and the average price for homes under contract is $722,909. Some of that increase is due to the new homes in Heritage Oaks being entered into the MLS.

The highest priced home sold was a new home in Heritage Oaks at $1,032,350. The highest priced resale home was at $915,000 in Creekside at Avery Ranch. The lowest priced home sold was in Brushy Creek Village at $343,500.

The home that sold at the highest dollars per square foot was in Granite Shoals in Avery Ranch at $313.74. The home that sold for the lowest dollars per square foot was in the Woods at Brushy Creek for $169.65.

The largest home sold was in Heritage Oaks at 4,321 square feet and the smallest home sold was at 1,148 square feet in Brushy Creek Village.

The inventory of active homes for sale was 25 with 54 homes under contract and in October homes sold on average for 1% over list price in 20 days. Although the market is continuing to moderate these statistics show we are still in a strong seller’s market.

Now let’s take a look at my crystal ball and talk about what I think will happen over the next 3 months. I don’t expect we will ever see a frenzy like we did earlier this year. I do expect we will see an increase in the number of homes coming on the market in January. I’ve personally never had more people contact me about selling in January than I ever have. Some sellers are finally selling after holding off their relocation for 18 months and some are closing on their new home in December and January.

At the same time based on my experience the number of showings we are having for our listings and the number of open house visitors there will be strong demand in January. It’s not the same as last year but I expect many of the buyers who tell me they aren’t in a hurry in November will wake up January 1st and realize they need to do something and they will become motivated.

I don’t expect we will see the market jump another 30% but I do expect appreciation will be higher than normal at the beginning of the year.

From there what’s unclear is how much inflation, interest rates and the overall economy will affect our real estate market. Locally what’s going to be interesting is as things open up more, and as builders take off their sales caps to provide more inventory will more sellers decide it’s finally time to make a move? I do expect that will happen.

What I will be waiting to see is what higher property tax assessments will do to inventory. Many people were upset about their taxes this year. The bad news is assessments for 2021 were largely based on 2020 sales and we will see much larger increases in assessed values in 2022. Will that be the last straw for property owners and especially investors who have been on the fence about selling?

In the end the story of the real estate market will be all about the inventory of homes. That’s why I keep track of the market on a daily basis to track changes. If you have plans for 2022, we should talk now. That way I can keep you up to date about the market and how it will impact your situation.

As we get into December we will be returning to our in-person Free Home Selling Workshops. If you want to attend a workshop, get in touch with us and we will notify you when they are scheduled. As always you can check KopaWorkshop.com to see dates and times of our in-person and online Free Home Selling Workshops. For years home sellers have told me they benefited from attending our events. Sign up at KopaWorkshop.com.

 

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 Our Featured Listings

 

October 2021

 

Hi 78717 homeowners. Today we are going to review the Avery Ranch and 78717 real estate housing market statistics, talk about what you should be paying attention to if you want to know where the market is heading and what you should be doing now if you are planning to sell in the next 6 months.

There were 45 homes sold in 78717 in September, down 10% from September, 2020 and up 2 sales from 43 homes sold in 2019.

The average sales price of $626,920 was up 45.7% from September, 2021 but down from July’s average price which was $672,549. In part this was because more larger homes were sold in the summer. In September there were only 3 homes over 3,500 square feet that sold compared to 9 homes over 3,500 square feet that sold in July.

Because fewer large homes sell in 78717 at this time of the year when you are looking at the real estate statistics it’s important to understand your home may sell in October for a higher price than it would have sold for in September even if the average prices are lower.

Perhaps a more accurate statistic to look at is the average dollars per square foot was up 36.6% compared to September, 2020.

With only 27 Active homes on the market and 51 homes under contract as of October 1 we are still in a strong seller’s market. The average number of days it took for a home to go under contract in 78717 was 17 days. This was up 2 days from August but still down considerably from 30 days in September, 2020. Along with the number of Active homes for sale watching how fast homes are going under contract is the second most important statistic to be watching to see where the market is going for the rest of this year and early 2022.

Please remember if you have a deadline when your home has to be sold be sure to contact us well in advance of that date and don’t simply count 17 days plus the 30 days that it normally takes from contract to close and contact us 47 days before your deadline.

On average homes in 78717 sold for 2% over the list price in September. This is down from May when homes sold on average for 16% over list price. It’s not surprising we have been seeing the over asking price percentage decrease as list prices have increased to more accurately reflect the current market. Sellers should know we are still in one of the best markets ever with historic sales prices, fast timelines and motivated buyers.

For buyers it means you have more opportunities than earlier in 2021 but you can’t confuse that with the market crashing or a significant drop in prices. I had a home go under contract yesterday. Once buyers found out it was under contract, I had several agents contact me about the house but they are too late. Often buyers wait around until they know someone else put a home under contract before they feel it’s safe to make a decision and that is a mistake.

On the bottom end of the market there were only 12 homes in 78717 that sold for $500,000 or under in September. In 2020 there were 40 homes that sold for $500,000 or below. It wasn’t long ago I used to look at homes selling for under $400,000 to gauge the appreciation on the low end of the market.

In 78717 the highest priced home sold was at $1,036,000 in Northwoods at Avery Ranch. The lowest priced home sold at $315,000 was in Brushy Creek Village and sold for $65,000 over asking price.

The smallest home sold was a condo in The Greens at Avery Ranch at 1,378 square feet. The largest home sold was at 4,012 square feet in Northwoods at Avery Ranch.

The home that sold for $199 per square feet was a home that needed a lot of updating in the Woods of Brushy Creek. The home that sold for $337 per square feet was a modern home in Presidio.

Last week a home seller in Oak Brook told me she doesn’t believe anything she hears and only 10% of what she reads until she can research it herself. That’s a good policy. Before you make any plans based on the monthly statistics let’s talk about how they impact your situation.

Where Is The Market Going?

Watch The Active Listings

Most real estate statistics are lagging indicators of the market. That means the September home sales really provide information about what was happening back in July and August when those homes went under contract. Unfortunately, by the time you see the statistics in our publication the market may have already changed.

Experts are divided about what we are going to see over the next year. Some say we are entering into a high tax, high inflation and high interest rate market which may cause the bubble to burst. Others expect we will continue the trend of a low inventory of homes for sale causing prices to go up.

If you want to keep up with where the market is going watch the number of “Active” listings. These are homes that have been put up for sale and not yet under contract. More active listing means buyers have more to choose from and may not make offers with a price as high as they would have if there were fewer choices.

It is important to watch the trends and how they compare to previous years. Take a look at this chart of Active listings over the last 3 years. If you take a look at last summer, you see where the number of Active listings took a nosedive and continued until this summer. It’s no wonder the market spiked when buyers only had 25% of the typical number of homes to choose from earlier this year. The current trend shows the Active listings increasing but still well below 2019 levels.

I will be watching the number of active listings. In addition, I’ll be paying attention to the emails and phone calls I receive from builders. Although some new homes are listed in the MLS to a large extent this is an inventory of homes for sale not calculated via MLS statistics. Call me if you want to know what’s going on in our area on a day-to-day basis.

If You Will Be Selling What Can You Do Now?

There are 2 things you should do to be ready in case we do see a spike in Active listings. This way you will be ready while the other sellers will be a month behind you.

Attend one of our Online Home Selling Workshops this month. Sign up at KopaWorkshop.com.

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If you know you will be selling your home in the next 6 months and we will be helping with your move, contact us today to put together a plan. That would include taking “Green Pictures” of your home and doing any make-ready at a time of year when it’s easier to schedule a handyman, etc. and prices are lower.

What Does “Months of Inventory” Mean To Buyers And Sellers

Along with the number of Active homes for sale watching how fast homes are going under contract is the second most important statistic to be watching to see where the market is going for the rest of this year and early 2022.

If you read reports on the real estate market, you'll run into the phrase "months of inventory." What does that mean?

This figure is determined by looking at the number of homes for sale and the average number of homes that have sold per month over the past year. If there are 1,000 homes for sale and only 100 homes have sold per month, there's 10 month's inventory. You're in what is commonly called a "Buyer's market." Homes remain on the market longer and generally experience price reductions. Sellers are also more likely to offer concessions in this kind of market.

If 1,000 homes sell per month, there is only 1 months' inventory, and you're experiencing a seller's market. Homes generally get multiple offers within days of being listed, and remain on the market for a very short time. Buyers are likely to be bidding against each other to "win" the home. Due to the law of supply and demand, prices begin rising and sellers are not forced to offer concessions.

In a balanced market – where supply is approximately equal to demand, you'll find approximately 6 months' worth of inventory. Prices may rise, but slowly. Correctly priced homes sell, but not as quickly. Buyers may be able to get small concessions.

Right now, 78717 has only 2 week’s worth of inventory.

Reach out to me directly and I'd be glad to talk with you about what that means to you and how you should plan your strategy for success.

I appreciate you reading and I appreciate your support. Make it a great day in 78717.

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 Our Featured Listings

 

September 2021

 

By the time you read this I will probably be 0-2 against my wife in fantasy football. As I was picking my team, I realized there are some similarities between real estate and picking players for fantasy football. Depending on which statistics I use I could make a football player appear incredible or terrible. The same can be said for real estate statistics and the market. The other similarity is what happened last year is over. Winning the Super Bowl last season doesn’t mean anything for this season. The same can be said about real estate statistics. If you’re planning to sell your home it’s not what happened 3 months ago that’s important but where you think the market is going when it’s time to sell.

If you need help with your fantasy football team don’t call me. If you are putting your plan together to make a move, don’t rely on the statistics, call me for a no pressure consultation.

On average homes in 78717 sold for 4% over asking price in August, 2021. This was down from 8% over list price in July and 16% over list price in May, showing the market is trending towards a more normal market. Anecdotally this is what we have been feeling in the market, fewer buyers asking me if they need to pay 20% over asking price to get their offer accepted. That doesn’t mean if your home is special you won’t still receive 20 offers, but it does mean the average home won’t sell for 20% over asking price in today’s market.

This is an important statistic if you are selling. I am seeing homes being listed with other agents too low, anticipating getting offers $100k over asking price. What’s happening is they are getting offers but not what they expected and then the sold price is lower than what it could have been. In many cases what’s happening is buyers aren’t quite as motivated as they were back in May. You can expect less offers and less action which means lower expectations for how much over asking price a buyer will pay. In some instances, it may be better to list higher and be patient than price too low and hope buyers will bid the price up dramatically.

The average sold price of $623,477 was up 31.2% from August, 2020 but actually lower than July’s average price of $672,549. Part of that is we had 3 homes sell for over $1 Million in July and fewer larger homes selling in August. July’s average price was up 51.1% from July, 2020 so we are starting to see a small pullback in the huge price increases on a year over year and month to month basis. Whether that is a trend or an anomaly remains to be seen.

With active homes for sale being only 35 and 65 homes under contract and an average days on market of 9 days we are still in a strong seller’s market. However, the average days on market for homes that are not under contract has inched up to 29 days. As I write this in Avery Ranch over the last 15 days 3 homes were taken off the market completely without selling and 6 other homes are in “Hold” status. I wasn’t the listing agent for any of these homes so I don’t know the whole story, but that usually indicates the sellers and agents missed the mark on market preparation and are now scrambling to make changes to the home. You only get 1 chance to make a first impression so that is a killer for your home’s value.

To show the appreciation on the bottom end of the market, there was only 1 single family home that sold under $430,000 in August compared to 16 homes that sold for under $400,000 in August, 2020. On the top end of the market there were 18 homes that sold for over $600,000 in August compared to only 9 homes that sold for over $600,000 in August, 2020.

The lowest priced home sold at $370,000 was in Brushy Creek Village and the highest priced home sold at $951,000 was a nice home with a pool and 3 car garage in Avery Ranch Parkside.

The smallest home at 1,217 square feet was the same home in Brushy Creek Village and the largest home at 4,265 square feet was in Avery Ranch Brookside. 

The home that sold at the lowest dollar per square foot was at $160.64 in Wood of Brushy Creek that sold for $49,900 under asking price and the home that sold at the highest dollar per square foot was at $269.33 was a small 1 story home in Northwoods at Avery Ranch.

                                                           

 Our Featured Listings

 

August 2021

 

In this month’s update I’ll review the latest real estate statistics for the Avery Ranch and 78717 housing market, what everyone is asking me about if the market crashing, will we see more foreclosures and advice for buyers and seller.

First let’s get into the market statistics for Avery Ranch and 78717 in July, 2021.

I48 homes were sold in July, down from 71 homes sold in July, 2020 and slightly down from 51 homes sold in 2019. The average sales price was $672,549 up 51.1% from last year. The average dollars per square foot was $265.96 up 46.7% from last year and the median sales price was $655,000 up 61.7% from last year, that is an increase of $255,000.

In July there were 3 homes that sold for over $1 Million including 2 resale homes. In addition to the huge increases year over year, the average sales price was up from $623,611 in June and the median price increased from $598,000 in June.

On average homes sold in July for 8% over list price which was down from 11% in June and 16% over list price in May. As inventory increases, we may see that number moderate more. There are currently 38 homes for sale in 78717 that are not under contract. That’s a big increase from the days earlier in the year when I would run a search and there were only 5 homes for sale. For homes that closed in July the average number of days before going under contract was 9. Homes that are currently for sale have an average number of days on the market of 21 which is up from 14 days when I did the July market update demonstrating the market is slowing.

Last year there were 34 homes that sold for under $400,000. In July, 2021 there were only 2 homes sold for $400,000 or below and only 9 homes that sold for under $500,000. Last year there were only 4 homes that sold for over $650,000 compared to July, 2021 there were 18 homes sold over $650,000.

For July the lowest priced home sold in 78717 was a home in Brushy Creek for $380,000. The highest priced home sold was a resale home in Heritage Oaks that sold for $1,236,175. There was also a resale home sold in Northwoods for $1,200,000.

The smallest home sold was the same home in Brushy Creek at 1,148 SF and the largest home sold was a new home in Heritage Oaks at 5,057 SF.

The home sold for the lowest $/SF was in Woods at Brushy Creek at $172.19/SF. The home that sold for the highest $/SF was the home in Brushy Creek that sold for $331.01.

                                                           

Is The Market Crashing?

When someone tells me the market is going to crash, I like to ask what that means to them. If my home is worth $800,000 today and the market crashes what will my home be worth and at what date? Nobody has ever been able to give me an answer to those questions.

Let me save you the suspense of having to read to the end…No, the market is not crashing. However, we are seeing the market “calming” in some areas and price ranges. Whether you are buying or selling it’s important to know what that means for you.

Why is this happening? We do know why prices have risen so dramatically this year. It’s because there have been so few homes for sale, that’s no secret. When a home is called “Active” it means it is not under contract, you can actually buy that house. Two years ago, at this time of the year there were over 7,000 homes you could buy in the Austin MLS. By January of 2021 there were barely over 1,000 homes for sale. As I write this in early August there are 3,752 Active homes for sale. That is still a low number of homes for sale but significantly more than we had in January so there’s no doubt that will affect the perception buyers have in the market. That extra price buyers were willing to pay (that I described as the whipped cream on an ice cream sundae) was the result of buyers fearing they could never find another home to buy. Time will tell how buyers will react when they have a few extra choices.

As the number of Active listings in increasing the average number of days it takes for a home to sell is also increasing. By no means is this a disaster. At a presentation for the local builders group an economist compared our market as going from a “Super, Super, Super, Super, Super Seller’s Market” to a “Super, Super, Super, Super Seller’s Market.”

Some buyers are thinking the tide has turned and the market is dropping. We put 2 homes on the market this weekend and we have multiple offers on both so in my opinion the market is still excellent for sellers, but there are some changes you should be aware of. Many buyers are going to confuse the market going from 40-50% appreciation to perhaps a more normal appreciation market and not understand that still means prices are going up. There may be less competition for each home but price appreciation momentum slowing doesn’t mean the market is crashing.

Why are we seeing an increase in Active listings? In part we normally see an increase in listings during the summer, but I believe what’s happening is more than our typical seasonality. Over the past few weeks, the rate of growth has begun to slow and fewer buyers are seeking mortgages to purchase homes.

Rental rates have gone up dramatically, indicating many buyers have put their home search on pause or decided to rent first before buying when they relocated. Anecdotally we have noticed a decrease in the number of agents doing Facetime tours on our listings and a decrease in the number of buyers expecting they will need to pay 20% over asking price on every listing. Don’t interpret that to mean people aren’t still relocating here. At this time, we have 4 listings under contract to buyers who are relocating and our open houses last weekend were full of people moving here from all over the country, not just California.

In part we are also seeing some homes not selling because the sellers overestimated the market and were overconfident about buyers paying top dollar for anything. This is a quote from a local Realtor in one of the real estate Facebook groups describing what she is seeing in the market… ”Agents not prepping listings, just putting crap on the market at top dollar. My buyers aren’t going for that!”

"Agents not prepping listings, just putting crap on the market at top dollar. My buyers aren’t going for that!”

– Anonymous Austin Realtor

Fueled by stories of sellers getting 97 offers and buyers buying with no inspections it’s understandable why this can happen. Many homes can still be sold “As-Is” with no make-ready necessary but it’s important to think about the buyer profile for your home before putting your home on the market. It’s also important you have a listing agent who is actively working in the market and can give you advice based on what’s happening in the market on a daily basis, not what happened 4 months ago. The buyer pool is strong enough to keep the housing market strong but when there are more homes to choose from you can expect buyers to be a little pickier.

What's The Good News?

The #1 question I’m asked is “I want to sell my home but then what do I do, there aren’t any homes to buy?” The good news is now we may have the answer. All of our sellers who decided to “burn their boats” and put their home on the market this year have landed in a better place. I expect the same would happen for you. Give us a call if you have been holding off until there was more to buy.

In addition to the inventory of homes increasing the builders are also selling homes again! Because we help so many people downsize, I am especially excited about a new 1,000 home Active Adult community that is about to start selling for new home delivery in early 2022. This will be a popular product so you will want to get on the VIP buyer list right away.

Do We Expect More Foreclosures?

With the eviction moratorium and mortgage forbearances ending soon the knee jerk reaction is to say we will see a flood of foreclosures. I’m not making light of the fact that some people will definitely be in trouble and we will see a rise in foreclosures, but you tell me where the mass foreclosures are going to come from?

This is a chart of 20 random sales taken from Cedar Park in May. I like to look at the down payments buyers are making. If I see lower down payments that would put buyers in a greater chance of being foreclosed on if we see a small drop in the market. We would need to see foreclosures for the market to truly crash. The larger down payments here indicate you’d have to see a large drop in prices to see foreclosures with the homes that were purchased even a couple months ago, not to mention all the other homes whose equity has dramatically increased in the last year. In addition, the big difference between today and 2008 the lack of risky loans in the market today.

We know some people will be in a bad situation in the next few months. If that is you or one of your friends contact us before it’s too late for a no-pressure consultation.

Advice For Sellers And Buyers

We have just been hired by 2 sellers whose homes didn’t sell. Both told me a similar story that they thought the market was so good they could hire their friend who works part time and lives in Dripping Springs as their agent. Now that their home wasn’t selling, they realized that isn’t going to cut it in the current market. Small changes in the market can make a huge difference. When you are choosing a listing agent make sure you ask yourself if they have the skills to navigate your home sale. Will they know what to do if your home doesn’t sell the first weekend?

For buyers now is not the time to give up! This may be the best opportunity to buy a home with less competition but that doesn’t mean it still isn’t a competitive environment for the great homes. I expect over the next 10 years your risk isn’t paying $5k too much for a home. Your greatest risk is doing nothing and then be forced to buy a home later 30 miles from where you really want to live.

Where Are Our Clients Moving To?

With so many people moving here it’s easy to forget where people are moving when they sell. Here is where some of our seller clients have moved to recently. Montana, Houston, Seattle x 2, San Diego x 2, Belton, Travisso, Nashville and Leander. Two are renting short term so they have flexibility while they figure out what to do with the rest of their lives. That’s a good position to be in right now. My favorite location are clients who are moving to Cancun as soon as they retire, I wish I could go with them!

Of course, I could be wrong about all of this. As always, be careful where you are getting your information. Make sure you are consulting with a qualified advisor. We don’t want you to make a bad decision because you had bad information. If there are any real estate related questions, we can answer for you contact us today at 512-791-7473.

                                                           

 Our Featured Listings

 

July 2021

 

The headline for June is how the entire market has shifted upwards. In June, 2021 we had 16 homes sold in 78717 at $700,000 or above compared to only 4 homes sold over $700,000 in 2020. On the bottom end of the market there were 29 homes sold for under $400,000 in June 2020 compared to only 2 homes sold in 78717 in June, 2021 for under $400,000.

The average home sold for 11% over list price, down from 16% over list price in May showing the market may be starting to stabilize.

One of the most important real estate statistics is the average days on the market because it shows how fast homes go from being listed to being under contract. Homes that sold in June were on the market for an average of 7 days. However, homes active on the market have an average days on market of 14 days. 14 days is still an incredibly fast market but it may be a sign as prices have gone up the market is slightly slowing down. It also can be there are many homes on the market where sellers were overconfident that those homes aren’t selling. That can pull up the average days on market statistic without truly being an indication of the overall market. Time will tell.

In June there were 50 home sales recorded, slightly down from 53 in June, 2020 but considerably down from the 64 sales in June, 2019. Average sales price jumped up 43.1% to $623,611. Average $/SF was up 45% to $270.19. Median sales price was up 55.3% to $598,000, which is $213,000 over the median price for June, 2020.

For June the lowest priced home sold in 78717 was a condo in the Commons at Avery Ranch for $347,560 and the highest priced home was sold for $1,118,000 in Champions At Avery Ranch.

The smallest home sold was at 1,274 SF in Brushy Creek Village and the largest home sold was the home in Champions at 5,131 SF.

The home with the lowest $/SF was a home sold in Meadows of Brushy Creek at $196.08 and the home sold at the highest $/SF was a home in Northwoods Avery Station Condos for $318.11.

                                                           

Now let’s talk about some real inside information about what’s happening in the Avery Ranch and 78717 real estate market you won’t see from anyone else.

When you hear there are multiple offers for a home you probably think they are all tightly bunched together right around the final sales price. This is a chart of about 1/3 of the homes I have sold in the last 2 months. The difference between the first and second offers will surprise you. I’ve been talking about the real estate market being driven in part on fundamentals with a heavy dose of emotion both from buyers and Realtors. This chart shows the emotional aspect of the market with buyers not realizing they are competing largely against themselves when offering on a home.

You’re going to start hearing talk about the market cooling. Some will interpret that to mean a crash. I would compare it more to going from a Ferrari to a Maserati, not going from a Ferrari to a Pinto. Remember, slowing appreciating doesn’t mean real estate is going to get cheaper.

Personally, I am bullish on the real estate market in our area. However, this chart demonstrates why some sellers will have trouble. We are already seeing more price reductions and homes not selling at all and be taken off the market. You will see sellers finding out a home sells with multiple offers for $880,000. They assume there are 11 other buyers at the same price, not realizing the next buyer was really at $800,000. The seller is going to say “That home sold for $880,000, the market is so good plus my house has a birdbath so I will list for $900,000.” What we are seeing is that seller is shocked they didn’t get an offer at that price.

This is a big risk for sellers who hire a listing agent that isn’t reviewing the volume of real world offers as our office does. It’s important for you as a seller that you have accurate information about what’s happening in your specific area because real estate is local. The average agent only sells 2-3 homes per year. Many haven’t sold a home all year. Their information is coming from Facebook groups, friends or stories in the media. That information is not going to be up to date with what is happening in the market today. We are already seeing homes listed by other agents not sell and because our office has specialized in helping people get their home sold after having a frustrating experience with another agent, we are beginning to get more calls from sellers who don’t understand what’s happening with their listing.

All year I’ve been very careful about not telling potential sellers to hold off listing because the buyer sentiment can change quickly. In the news it’s reported we need 5.5 million homes built to have a balanced market between buyers and sellers. Others say a jump in interest rates won’t have an impact on the market because even if half the buyers pause their search there will still be 6 buyers making an offer. Maybe on the macro level all that is true, but remember you are only selling one home. This chart shows the danger in that thinking because it won’t take 5.5 million homes to make the price of your home go from $880,000 to $800,000…all it may take is one more home in your neighborhood for buyers to choose from. All it takes is one $880,000 buyer to get spooked by higher rates for you to be left with only an $800,000 offer.

It’s also hard for me to tell you what your home will be worth next year. Sellers holding off for “one more year” of appreciation may be disappointed. The overall market may appreciate next year but for the $880,000 sale what would be your basis to calculate the appreciation off? $8800,000, $800,000 or somewhere in between? I probably couldn’t sell that house again for $880,000 so it’s hard for even me to know what to tell someone about how that will impact the value of your home next year.

Overall, I am bullish on the real estate market in our area. I personally just put my money where my mouth is and bought a home for my family. I'm also under contract on a property I will be flipping. Nothing I am saying here means buyers should hold off, I believe that will be a mistake. However, sellers should expect buyers will be less emotional later in the year and into 2022.

Overall, I am bullish on the real estate market in our area. I personally just put my money where my mouth is and bought a home for my family. I'm also under contract on a property I will be flipping. Nothing I am saying here means buyers should hold off, I believe that will be a mistake. However, sellers should expect buyers will be less emotional later in the year and into 2022.

 

                                                           

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June 2021

 

I had to go back and double check the math because it’s hard to believe the statistics comparing May, 2020 to May, 2021 for real estate in 78717.

The number of homes sold was up 46.2% but was still down from the 46 sales in 2019. Average price was up 47.5% and median price was up 57.8% with the average $/SF was up 54.4%.

The lowest priced home sold was $265,000 and is a condo in The Commons at Avery Ranch. The highest priced home sold was in Northwoods at Avery Ranch at $1,225,000. The smallest home sold was the same condo in The Commons and the largest home sold was at 5,057 in Heritage Oaks. The home sold at the lowest $/SF was in Morningside Avery Ranch and the home with the highest $/SF was in The Woods at Brushy Creek. The difference between the highest and lowest $/SF was over $110/SF.

Here are a few more interesting facts from May…We sold a home in Parkside at Avery Ranch for $195,000 OVER asking price which was already a very high list price. Only 3 homes sold for over $600,000 in May, 2020 and 26 homes sold over $600,000 in May, 2021 with 3 homes selling for over $1 Million in 78717. The average home sold for 16% OVER list price and the average days on market dropped from 23 in May, 2020 to 4 in 2021.

 

 

 

May 2021

 

The year over year statistics for the 78717 housing market are going to get very interesting. April 2020 is when we first started to see the inventory crunch we are still in and what has caused prices to rise dramatically. The real estate market essentially shut down last March and April leading to much lower than average number of homes being put on the market. Our clients who were planning to sell last March decided to hold off until later in the year and in some cases are just now planning for us to get their homes on the market in May.

Because so many homeowners decided to hold off the number of home sales is a little misleading. Home sales did increase from 26 in 2020 to 37 which is an increase of 42.3%. But, that’s still below the 39 homes that were sold in 2019.

In 78717 the largest home sold in April was a new home in Heritage Oaks and the smallest home sold was a condo in The Commons in Avery Ranch. The home that sold at the highest $/SF was a large single-story home in Heritage Oaks and the home that sold for the lowest $/SF sold in The Woods At Brushy Creek. It’s important to note that the difference between the highest and lowest $/SF was over $200/SF which reinforces the idea that pricing real estate off average $/SF will cause you to price too high or too low. The highest price home sold was a new home in Heritage Oaks for over $1.2 Million and the highest priced resale home was sold in Northwoods at Avery Ranch for $941,000. The lowest priced home sold was the condo in The Commons. In 2020 the lowest priced home sold was $276,000 so we have jumped up $86,000 on the low end of the market in only 1 year. In April the lowest priced single-family home sold for $415,000.

On average for the overall 78717 real estate market homes sold for 16% over list price. Sellers can’t get too overconfident because in April there were 9 homes that were put on the market in 78717 and did not sell at all so that is an indication that although the market is on fire buyers are not willing to buy anything.

 

 

 

March 2021

 

Wow! What a difference a year makes in the Avery Ranch and 78717 real estate market. Last March I was afraid to answer my phone because it was probably someone calling to cancel a contract saying something like “these are unprecedented times.” For the buyers who stuck with it that conviction sure paid off. In March the average home in 78717 sold for 20% higher than the original list price!

If you haven’t been following real estate prices you are going to be shocked when you see your tax appraised value. If your first thought is if someone is crazy enough to pay that much for your home you’d sell it…give us a call. Chances are that value is $125,000 + too low compared to what your home would sell for today. The reason for that is the tax values are based on comparable sales from last year. If you think your tax value is high this year, just wait until 2022 when your tax value will be based on what’s happening in the market right now.

For March the lowest priced home sold in 78717 and the smallest home was located in Brushy Creek Village that sold for $73,500 over original asking price and the home that sold at the lowest $/SF was in The Enclave section of Avery Ranch. The highest priced home sold and the largest home sold was in Northwoods at Avery Ranch which sold for $160,500 over original asking price and the home that sold for the highest $/SF was in the Granite Shoals section of Avery Ranch.

 

 

 

February 2021


We’ve been talking about the market indicators, especially the active listings compared to the homes under contract, for about 6 months. The real estate statistics for Avery Ranch and 78717 in February are now showing what we have been feeling in the market for the last several months. Fewer homes being sold combined with an increase in the number of motivated buyers has led to unbelievable appreciation.

Most people I talk with think their home is worth $50,000-$100,000 less than what we could sell it for today. Sellers have to be careful they are hiring a real estate agent that is active in the market. Many agents only sell 2-3 homes per year and if you are taking advice from someone who isn’t following the appreciation on a daily basis and they haven’t been active in the market since December you may accept an offer that is too low.

I am careful not to give anyone the impression that the good times will last forever. All I have to do is think back to a real estate conference I attended at the end of last February. Nobody was talking anything affecting real estate and 3 weeks later we were shut down. The current trends and the market indicators point towards higher prices. We also know that trends tend to continue until something unexpected happens.

 

 

 

2021✨
December 2020


When we look at the yearly market update statistics for Avery Ranch you have to remember it’s a historical perspective but not necessarily an indication of where we are going at the beginning of the year. The market indicators of active listings/pending listings as well as the average days on the market and the average sales price to original list price being over 100% (buyers are not able to negotiate) mean we should see higher prices in the near future.

It goes without saying 2020 was a strange year. The pricing statistics are not a true reflection of the appreciation in the area. In 2020 we saw more smaller homes and condos sell which held down the average and median prices. We do expect to see more larger homes sell in 2021 once owners feel more certainty about where they want to go. Towards the end of the year, we have seen tremendous appreciation including many homes selling for over asking price. Looking at the current market the average $/SF of homes under contract is $204.27/SF compared to $188.70/SF for all of 2020. If you are buying or selling in 2021 be sure to be paying attention to the current market conditions rather than relying on comparable sales from 6 months ago.

For the year the highest priced, the largest and the home sold at the highest $/SF were in Heritage Oaks. We include Heritage Oaks in the Avery Ranch statistics because buyers consider it part of the neighborhood. For Avery Ranch itself we had the first resale home selling over $1 Million as a home in gated Reserve section sold for $1,050,000.

 

 

 

November 2020

 

 

 

October 2020


The lowest priced home sold was a condo in the Ingleside condominium development, the smallest SF home sold was in the Turnberry community and the home that sold with the lowest $/SF was in the Enclave garden homes. The highest priced home sold, the largest home sold and the home that sold with the highest $/SF were all in Heritage Oaks.

There were some huge jumps in the average sales price and median sales price. Keep in mind just because the average price was up 25% that doesn’t mean your home worth 25% more. Maybe it is and maybe not. Some of the increase is due to more higher end homes selling and less homes selling on the lower end of the price range. We are seeing tremendous appreciation; however, you will want to compare the expected sales price of your home to other similar homes and not the overall market. If you would like to talk about what your home can sell for in today’s market call 512-791-7473 or email eric@koparealestate.com.

 

 

 

September 2020


Just when we thought things couldn’t get any hotter in Avery Ranch along came September and the market got even better. Our market is typically not as seasonal as you might expect but especially this year we have seen no signs of the market cooling off this fall.

This is a challenging market for buyers, especially buyers who do not have professional representation from an agent who is keeping up with how fast the market is moving. Almost every day a potential buyer will tell me they aren’t in a hurry. What they don’t understand is they should be in a hurry before they are priced out of the market. The median price jumping up to $414,500 which is the first time over $400,000 shows the bottom end of the market has shown tremendous appreciation since last year. The supply and demand statistics lead me to believe prices will continue to go up.

A few of the interesting statistics for September…The largest home and the home that sold for the highest price was on the golf course in Creekside. The lowest priced home per $/SF was in Brookside. The highest priced home per $/SF was a small single-story home in Glenfield with a large back yard. Lot size is definitely something buyers are willing to pay a premium for in this market.

 

 

 

August 2020


It’s hard to believe there are over 3 homes under contract for every home that is available for sale. With 31 homes selling in August and only 10 available for sale that gives us an absorption rate of only about 2 weeks. What that means is at the rate we are going if no other homes were listed all the homes would be under contract in about 2 weeks. This is an indication of a strong seller’s market and we are likely to see prices continue to increase as interest rates are also expected to stay low for the foreseeable future.

The median price increasing 15.7% is a startling number. The median price means if you lined up all the sales for the month the home that sold for $391,000 would be right in the middle. When I see that it demonstrates the price appreciation on the low end of the real estate market. Anyone who is a potential first-time homebuyer and has been dragging their feet should consider buying sooner than later before you are completely priced out of the market. The average price being up 24.1% is a little misleading. We are starting to see some higher end homes coming on the market which is raising the average price. That does not mean your home is worth 24.1% more than it was a year ago.

The highest priced home, largest and the house that sold for the highest $/SF were all in Heritage Oaks. The lowest priced house per SF sold was in Waters Edge and was in very poor condition. The lowest priced home sold was in the Commons behind McDonalds.

If you have any questions about how these statistics impact your house call me at 512-791-7473 or email eric@koparealestate.com.

 

 

 

July 2020


We were expecting to see more sales be reported in July. 10 additional sales with an additional 38 homes under contract shows the market is strong. The lower average sales price and median sales price was due to an unusual number of condos and smaller investment properties selling. I expect we will see further selling as landlords concerned with tenants not being able to pay rent will decide to sell when their leases expire. The lowest priced home sold in July was a condo in The Greens and the highest priced home was a 5 bedroom home in Brookside. The largest home sold for almost $100,000 under asking price.

As always, we're always ready to work for you and your family. Whenever you are ready to talk about your home call/text Eric Peterson with Kopa Real Estate at 512-791-7473 or email eric@koparealestate.com.

 

 

 

June 2020


Last month we talked about watching the supply/demand numbers to see where the market is going. This month we are starting to see some of those home sales be reported showing strong numbers for June and we expect even stronger sales in July.

The highest price home and first resale home sold over $1 million was sold in the gated Reserve section of the neighborhood backing up to the golf course. The lowest priced home was a condo in Ingleside.

As always, we're always ready to work for you and your family. Whenever you are ready to talk about your home call/text Eric Peterson with Kopa Real Estate at 512-791-7473 or email eric@koparealestate.com.

 

 

 

May 2020


Whenever you see real estate statistics here or in the newspaper the headlines focus on what’s happened in the rear-view mirror. If you are planning to sell or buy real estate that might be interesting but the current market conditions will have more of an impact your plans. This month we are highlighting the supply and demand statistics. With almost 2 homes under contract for every active listing we are in a strong seller’s market.

What this means for sellers is despite the ugly numbers you are seeing for April and May sales you should have every expectation you can sell your home for a great price. What this means for buyers is if you are waiting for the market to crash you are likely going to be disappointed and will pay more for the same home in the future.

The highest sales price in Avery Ranch was a home sold in Northwoods at Avery Ranch and the lowest priced was a condo in The Commons. In the rest of 78717 the highest sales price was a home in Highland Horizon and the lowest priced home was in Oak Brook.

As always, we're always ready to work for you and your family. Whenever you are ready to talk about your home call/text Eric Peterson with Kopa Real Estate at 512-791-7473 or email eric@koparealestate.com.

 

 

 

April 2020


Only 10 homes sold in April which is down from 25 last year. That’s about what we’d expect to see during a pandemic. With 22 homes under contract as of 5/1 things should start looking better going forward. However, we are seeing homes that aren’t selling including 3 homes in April that didn’t sell and were taken off the market. In many cases it’s not surprising they aren’t selling. Although we are optimistic, we have definitely entered a more professional market. The biggest lie in real estate is who you hire to sell your home doesn’t matter, many sellers are finding out that isn’t true. The lowest priced home to sell was a condo in The Greens and the highest priced home to sell was a single-family home in Pearson Place. With the average sales price up almost $90k and the median sales price up $78k there has been good appreciation despite the economic conditions. The first home to sell over $1 million is also under contract in Avery Ranch. That’s pretty exciting!

As always, we're always ready to work for you and your family. Whenever you are ready to talk about your home call/text Eric Peterson with Kopa Real Estate at 512-791-7473 or email eric@koparealestate.com.

 

 

 

March 2020


It’s never recommended to use statistics for the whole area to make decisions about your house. Due to the small number of sales the statistics can be misinterpreted. For example, the average sales price was slightly down this month compared to March, 2019. That was due. more to a few investors who owned small condos and smaller homes deciding to sell rather an overall decline in the market.

In March, 2020 the smallest home sold was a condo in the Commons and that also had the lowest sales price of $205,000. The largest home sold was a house with a pool in Northwoods that was 3,047 SF and sold for $650,000.

We expect to see a large amount of activity in the market once things go back to normal. If you are considering buying or selling in the next few months it will be important for you to talk with us about what we are seeing in the market and our expectations for your property.

As always these are general real estate statistics. Every home is different and you should always get advice about your specific home and situation. Whenever you are ready to talk about your home call/text Eric Peterson with Kopa Real Estate at 512-791-7473 or email eric@koparealestate.com.

 

 

 

February 2020


During the January report I mentioned the statistics made it look like the market was going down but based on the number of pending sales we knew the February report would show a truer picture of the market. That turned out to be correct.

In February we had 7 homes sell for prices of $500,000 or higher in the Avery Ranch area. The number of homes sold was up 5 with the average $/SF being up almost 20%. The average sales price and median prices. were up almost 8%.

With 14 homes under contract and only 8 on the market we are still in a solid sellers’ market.

The lowest priced home was a condo in the Plaza Townhomes behind Brooklyn Heights pizza while the highest priced home sold was in Northwoods at Avery Ranch.

The smallest home sold was in the gated section of Pearson Place and the largest home sold was in Northwoods at Avery Ranch.

The lowest price per SF was also the condo in the Plaza Townhomes and the highest price per SF was in the gated section of Pearson Place.

As always these are general real estate statistics. Every home is different and you should always get advice about your specific home and situation. Whenever you are ready to talk about your home call/text Eric Peterson with Kopa Real Estate at 512-791-7473 or email eric@koparealestate.com.

 

 

 

January 2020

 



Let’s look at the Avery Ranch area real estate market statistics for January 2020.

As we always point out at this time of the year you have to be careful reading too much into the market statistics. There are not enough sales to make the figures statistically significant. If you have any questions about the value of your home or you are considering buying a home contact us for a more accurate estimate of the expected sales price.

The number of sales was down as was the average sales price and median price. This is largely due to 3 of the 5 homes sold being smaller condos. Based on what we are seeing the market is up 6-10% over last year depending on the floor plan and section of the neighborhood.

The highest priced home sold was in Morningside at Avery Ranch and only $406,000. That number will look different for the February market report as there are currently 7 homes under contract at higher prices than $406,000.

The smallest home sold was a condo in the Commons at Avery Ranch at only 1,090 SF and sold for $202,500.

Kopa Real Estate has helped over 150 families sell and buy homes in Avery Ranch. Whenever you are ready to talk contact Eric or Joyce Peterson at 512-791-7473  or email eric@koparealestate.com.

 

 

 

This Avery Ranch market report includes data for Avery Ranch, Northwoods at Avery Ranch, Pearson Place at Avery Ranch and The Commons Avery Ranch condominiums. Buyers should verify neighborhood boundaries and HOA amenities prior to purchasing a home.

 

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